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FORD MEDIA CENTER
United States | English Select a location
Ford Media Center
DEARBORN, Mich., March 2, 2022 – Ford is continuing to transform its global automotive business, accelerating the development and scaling of breakthrough electric, connected vehicles, while leveraging its iconic nameplates to strengthen operating performance and take full advantage of engineering and industrial capabilities.
“This isn’t the first time Ford has reimagined the future and taken our own path,” said Ford Executive Chair Bill Ford. “We have an extraordinary opportunity to lead this thrilling new era of connected and electric vehicles, give our customers the very best of Ford, and help make a real difference for the health of the planet.”
Last May, Ford President and CEO Jim Farley introduced the Ford+ plan, calling it the company’s biggest opportunity for growth and value creation since Henry Ford scaled production of the Model T. The formation of two distinct, but strategically interdependent, auto businesses – Ford Blue and Ford Model e – together with the new Ford Pro business, will help unleash the full potential of the Ford+ plan, driving growth and value creation and positioning Ford to outperform both legacy automakers and new EV competitors.
“We have made tremendous progress in a short period of time. We have launched a series of hit products globally and demand for our new EVs like F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E is off the charts,” Farley said. “But our ambition with Ford+ is to become a truly great, world-changing company again, and that requires focus. We are going all in, creating separate but complementary businesses that give us start-up speed and unbridled innovation in Ford Model e together with Ford Blue’s industrial know-how, volume and iconic brands like Bronco, that start-ups can only dream about.”
Driving the change was recognition that different approaches, talents and, ultimately, organizations are required to unleash Ford’s development and delivery of electric and digitally connected vehicles and services and fully capitalize on the company’s iconic family of internal combustion vehicles.
The creation of Ford Model e was informed by the success of small, mission-driven Ford teams that developed the Ford GT, Mustang Mach-E SUV and F-150 Lightning pickup as well as Ford’s dedicated EV division in China.
“Ford Model e will be Ford’s center of innovation and growth, a team of the world’s best software, electrical and automotive talent turned loose to create truly incredible electric vehicles and digital experiences for new generations of Ford customers,” Farley said.
“Ford Blue’s mission is to deliver a more profitable and vibrant ICE business, strengthen our successful and iconic vehicle families and earn greater loyalty by delivering incredible service and experiences. It’s about harnessing a century of hardware mastery to help build the future. This team will be hellbent on delivering leading quality, attacking waste in every corner of the business, maximizing cash flow and optimizing our industrial footprint.”
Ford Model e and Ford Blue will be run as distinct businesses, but also support each other – as well as Ford Pro, which is dedicated to delivering a one-stop shop for commercial and government customers with a range of conventional and electric vehicles and a full suite of software, charging, financing, services and support on Ford and non-Ford products. Ford Model e and Ford Blue will also support Ford Drive mobility.
Ford Model e will:
- Attract and retain the best software, engineering, design and UX talent and perfect new technologies and concepts that can be applied across the Ford enterprise;
- Embrace a clean-sheet approach to designing, launching and scaling breakthrough, high-volume electric and connected products and services for retail, commercial and shared mobility;
- Develop the key technologies and capabilities – such as EV platforms, batteries, e-motors, inverters, charging and recycling – to create ground-up, breakthrough electric vehicles; and
- Create the software platforms and fully networked vehicle architectures to support delightful, always-on and ever-improving vehicles and experiences.
Ford Model e also will lead on creating an exciting new shopping, buying and ownership experience for its future electric vehicle customers that includes simple, intuitive e-commerce platforms, transparent pricing and personalized customer support from Ford ambassadors. Ford Blue will adapt these best practices to enhance the experience of its ICE customers and deliver new levels of customer connectivity and satisfaction.
Ford Blue will exercise Ford’s deep automotive expertise to:
- Strengthen the iconic Ford vehicles customers love, such as F-Series, Ranger and Maverick trucks, Bronco and Explorer SUVs, and Mustang, with investments in new models, derivatives, experiences and services;
- Help customers fulfill their passions and daily lives with tailored brand and vehicle experiences, from off-roading to performance to family activities, especially for those situations when ICE capabilities are required;
- Deliver new, connected, personalized and always-on experiences for customers powered by Ford Model e’s software and embedded systems;
- Make industry-leading quality and exceptional service a reason to choose and stay with Ford;
- Root out waste and dramatically reduce product, manufacturing and quality costs; and
- Support Ford Model e and Ford Pro through proven, global-scale engineering, purchasing, manufacturing, and vehicle test and development capabilities for world-class safety, ride and handling, quiet and comfort, and durability.
Ford reaffirms guidance for 2022 of $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion in company adjusted EBIT. The high end of the range equates to a margin of 8% which, if achieved, would be one year earlier than the company’s previous target. With these changes announced today, Ford is raising its longer-term operating and financial targets, including:
- Company adjusted EBIT margin of 10% by 2026, a 270-basis-point increase over 2021– driven by higher volumes, improvement in the cost of EVs, and a significant decline in ICE structural costs of up to $3 billion
- More than 2 million electric vehicles produced annually by 2026, representing about one-third of Ford’s global volume, rising to half by 2030, capturing with EVs the same, or even greater, market shares in vehicle segments where Ford already leads
- In addition, Ford expects to spend $5 billion on EVs in 2022, including capital expenditures, expense and direct investments, a two-fold increase over 2021
Ford reiterated its commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, and to use 100% local, renewable electricity in all of its manufacturing operations by 2035.
“This new structure will enhance our capacity to generate industry-leading growth, profitability and liquidity in this new era of transportation,” said John Lawler, Ford’s chief financial officer. “It will sharpen our effectiveness in allocating capital to both the ICE and EV businesses and the returns we expect from them – by making the most of existing capabilities, adding new skills wherever they’re needed, simplifying processes and lowering costs. Most importantly, we believe it will deliver growth and significant value for our stakeholders.”
Ford Model e and Ford Blue will work hand-in-glove with other parts of the Ford enterprise. Ford Pro will continue to deliver industry-leading products, services and support that commercial customers depend on. Served by Ford Model e and Ford Blue, Lincoln will continue to create compelling vehicles with an exceptional ownership experience to match. Ford Drive will continue to develop new digitally connected mobility businesses. And Ford Credit will continue to support the customer experience and drive loyalty with a full suite of financial products and services.
Leadership With the creation of Ford Blue and Ford Model e, Ford is announcing several leadership appointments. Farley will serve as president of Ford Model e, in addition to his role as president and CEO of Ford Motor Company.
Doug Field will lead Ford Model e’s product creation as chief EV and digital systems officer. He will also lead the development of software and embedded systems for all of Ford. Marin Gjaja will be Model e’s chief customer officer, heading the division’s go-to-market, customer experience and new business initiatives.
“Designing truly incredible electric and software-driven vehicles – with experiences customers can’t even imagine yet – requires a clean-sheet approach,” Field said. “We are creating an organization that benefits from all of Ford’s know-how and capabilities, but that can move with speed and unconstrained ambition to create revolutionary new products.”
Kumar Galhotra will serve as president of Ford Blue.
“Ford Blue’s mission is extremely ambitious,” Galhotra said. “We are going to invest in our incredible F-Series franchise, unleash the full potential of hits like Bronco and Maverick, and launch new vehicles like global Ranger pickup, Ranger Raptor and Raptor R. We’ll pair these great products with a simple, connected and convenient customer experience that earns higher loyalty. We are going to be hyper-competitive on costs and make quality a reason to choose Ford. And by doing all that, Ford Blue will be an engine of cash and profitability for the whole company.”
Stuart Rowley and Hau Thai-Tang will take on new global roles to support Ford’s transformation.
Rowley will be chief transformation and quality officer. He will establish quality as a reason to choose a Ford and lead Ford’s drive to improved efficiency, reduced complexity and a lean, fully competitive cost structure across the enterprise.
Thai-Tang will lead Ford’s industrial platform as chief industrial platform officer. He will lead product development, supply chain and manufacturing engineering for ICE products and common systems across Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro and Ford Drive.
- Ted Cannis, CEO, Ford Pro
- Anning Chen, President and CEO, Ford China
- Lisa Drake, Vice President, EV Industrialization, Ford Model e
- Joy Falotico, President, Lincoln
- Jim Farley, President and CEO, Ford
- Doug Field, Chief EV and Digital Systems Officer, Ford Model e
- Kumar Galhotra, President, Ford Blue
- Marin Gjaja, Chief Customer Officer, Ford Model e
- Marion Harris, President and CEO, Ford Motor Credit Company
- John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer
- Darren Palmer, Vice President, Electric Vehicle Programs, Ford Model e
- Stuart Rowley, Chief Transformation & Quality Officer
- Hau Thai-Tang, Chief Industrial Platform Officer
Ford News Conference – Wednesday, March 2, at 8 a.m. EST
Journalists and members of the investment community interested in asking questions should additionally dial in by phone.
Pre-registration (not required, but will expedite login)
Conference ID: 9288331
Listen-only livestream and replay
The presentation and supporting material will be available at shareholder.ford.com .
Ford Capital Markets Call – Wednesday, March 2, at 9:15 a.m. EST
Conference ID: 8872114
Listen-only webcast and replay
Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Statements Statements included or incorporated by reference herein may constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are based on expectations, forecasts, and assumptions by our management and involve a number of risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those stated, including, without limitation:
- Ford and Ford Credit’s financial condition and results of operations have been and may continue to be adversely affected by public health issues, including epidemics or pandemics such as COVID-19;
- Ford is highly dependent on its suppliers to deliver components in accordance with Ford’s production schedule, and a shortage of key components, such as semiconductors, or raw materials can disrupt Ford’s production of vehicles;
- Ford’s long-term competitiveness depends on the successful execution of Ford+;
- Ford’s vehicles could be affected by defects that result in delays in new model launches, recall campaigns, or increased warranty costs;
- Ford may not realize the anticipated benefits of existing or pending strategic alliances, joint ventures, acquisitions, divestitures, or new business strategies;
- Operational systems, security systems, vehicles, and services could be affected by cyber incidents, ransomware attacks, and other disruptions;
- Ford’s production, as well as Ford’s suppliers’ production, could be disrupted by labor issues, natural or man-made disasters, financial distress, production difficulties, capacity limitations, or other factors;
- Ford’s ability to maintain a competitive cost structure could be affected by labor or other constraints;
- Ford’s ability to attract and retain talented, diverse, and highly skilled employees is critical to its success and competitiveness;
- Ford’s new and existing products, digital and physical services, and mobility services are subject to market acceptance and face significant competition from existing and new entrants in the automotive, mobility, and digital services industries;
- Ford’s near-term results are dependent on sales of larger, more profitable vehicles, particularly in the United States;
- With a global footprint, Ford’s results could be adversely affected by economic, geopolitical, protectionist trade policies, or other events, including tariffs;
- Industry sales volume in any of Ford’s key markets can be volatile and could decline if there is a financial crisis, recession, or significant geopolitical event;
- Ford may face increased price competition or a reduction in demand for its products resulting from industry excess capacity, currency fluctuations, competitive actions, or other factors;
- Inflationary pressure and fluctuations in commodity prices, foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates, and market value of Ford or Ford Credit’s investments, including marketable securities, can have a significant effect on results;
- Ford and Ford Credit’s access to debt, securitization, or derivative markets around the world at competitive rates or in sufficient amounts could be affected by credit rating downgrades, market volatility, market disruption, regulatory requirements, or other factors;
- Ford’s receipt of government incentives could be subject to reduction, termination, or clawback;
- Ford Credit could experience higher-than-expected credit losses, lower-than-anticipated residual values, or higher-than-expected return volumes for leased vehicles;
- Economic and demographic experience for pension and other postretirement benefit plans (e.g., discount rates or investment returns) could be worse than Ford has assumed;
- Pension and other postretirement liabilities could adversely affect Ford’s liquidity and financial condition;
- Ford and Ford Credit could experience unusual or significant litigation, governmental investigations, or adverse publicity arising out of alleged defects in products, services, perceived environmental impacts, or otherwise;
- Ford may need to substantially modify its product plans to comply with safety, emissions, fuel economy, autonomous vehicle, and other regulations;
- Ford and Ford Credit could be affected by the continued development of more stringent privacy, data use, and data protection laws and regulations as well as consumers’ heightened expectations to safeguard their personal information; and
- Ford Credit could be subject to new or increased credit regulations, consumer protection regulations, or other regulations.
We cannot be certain that any expectation, forecast, or assumption made in preparing forward-looking statements will prove accurate, or that any projection will be realized. It is to be expected that there may be differences between projected and actual results. Our forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of their initial issuance, and we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. For additional discussion, see “Item 1A. Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, as updated by subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and Current Reports on Form 8-K.
About Ford Motor Company
Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) is a global company based in Dearborn, Michigan, that is committed to helping build a better world, where every person is free to move and pursue their dreams. The company’s Ford+ plan for growth and value creation combines existing strengths, new capabilities and always-on relationships with customers to enrich experiences for and deepen the loyalty of those customers. Ford develops and delivers innovative, must-have Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars and Lincoln luxury vehicles, as well as connected services. Additionally, Ford is establishing leadership positions in mobility solutions, including self-driving technology, and provides financial services through Ford Motor Credit Company. Ford employs about 176,000 people worldwide. More information about the company, its products and Ford Credit is available at corporate.ford.com.
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SWOT Analysis of Ford (5 Key Strengths in 2022)
This Ford SWOT analysis reveals how a pioneering automobile company used its competitive advantages to become one of the most innovative automotive manufacturers in the world.
It identifies all the key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats that affect the company the most. If you want to find out more about the SWOT of Ford, you’re in the right place.
For more information on how to do a SWOT analysis please refer to our article.
Ford Motor Company business overview from the company’s financial report:
“With about 202,000 employees worldwide, the Company designs, manufactures, markets, and services a full line of Ford cars, trucks, and SUVs, as well as Lincoln luxury vehicles. To expand our business model, we are aggressively pursuing emerging opportunities with investments in electrification, autonomy, and mobility.
In 2017, we sold approximately 6,607,000 vehicles at wholesale throughout the world. Substantially, all of our vehicles, parts and accessories are sold through distributors and dealers, the substantial majority of which are independently owned. We do not depend on any single customer or a few customers to the extent that the loss of such customers would have a material adverse effect on our business.
In addition to the products we sell to our dealerships for retail sale, we also sell vehicles to our dealerships for sale to fleet customers, including commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments.” 
1. ford’s f-series pickup truck line.
Ford has produced the best-selling pickup truck in the U.S. market for a record 41 years in a row, via its F-Series pickup trucks (a lifestyle/light commercial vehicle with an enclosed cab and an open rear cargo area with low sides and tailgates).  The company’s F-Series pickups outsold nearest competitor in this segment by more than 200,000 vehicles in 2017, taking a 31.8% share of the pickup vehicles market.
Figure 1. Best-selling pickup trucks in the U.S. 2015-2017
Source: Good Car Bad Car 
The company heavily invests in its F-Series product line, owning more than 100 patents related to pickups. Ford renews its F-150 models every few years and expects to introduce its first diesel engine in 2018 as well as enhanced connectivity features. A hybrid F-Series model will be available for sale in 2020. The F-150 is the most profitable and the most successful model for Ford to date, so the company makes every effort to provide the best quality vehicles with the most innovative technologies to assist drivers accordingly.
Why do the F-Series pickups give Ford an edge over its competitors?
- Profitability. Pickups are more profitable vehicles than compact cars or SUVs. In 2015, Nick Bunkley from Auto News  calculated that on average Ford was making at least US$10,000 in profit from a single F-150 sold. Considering that Ford sold 896,764 units of these pickups in 2017, Ford’s F-150 profits should have totaled around US$9 billion from these vehicles alone. By making so much profit from one line of vehicles the company can invest more in its other models and subsidize them in order to increase their market share.
- It drives their sales growth in the U.S. The U.S. is the second largest automotive market in the world and is Ford’s main market. The company sold 2,566,000 vehicles in the U.S. in 2017, of which over a third were pickup trucks. However, Ford’s market share in the U.S. declined from 14.9% in 2015 to 14.8% in 2017, despite the significant growth of pickup trucks. The company’s market share in its largest market therefore currently significantly depends on the F-Series’ success.
- Pickup trucks are becoming a status symbol. According to a study done by MaritzCX  , Ford’s F-150 pickup trucks are the most often purchased vehicle by people earning US$200,000-US$500,000 a year. That’s because pickup trucks are now seen as luxury vehicles, having many of the same features inside as luxury cars. In addition, their style, safety, usefulness and comfort have elevated their status. Ford is the leader in the pickup trucks market in the U.S. and its brand association with such a symbolic vehicle strengthens its overall brand image and reputation.
2. Brand reputation combined with the second most loyal customer base
Ford is the oldest of the three American companies, with its founder Henry Ford being famous for pioneering the revolutionary assembly line technique of mass production in the early 20 th century. The company became famous for its mass produced vehicles such as the Model T and the Model A.
Interbrand ranks Ford’s brand as the 33 rd most valuable in the world, valuing it at US$13.643 billion.  Forbes lists the brand as the 39 th most valuable in the world valuing it at US$13.8 billion.  Both of these rankings make Ford the most valuable brand among the traditional “big three” American automotive companies – General Motors, Ford and Chrysler.
In the U.S. market, according to a 2015- 2017 analysis of new vehicle registrations, Ford had the second most loyal customer base in the U.S. vehicle market.  Ford’s F-Series, Lincoln’s MKC, MKX and MKZ brands were also named in their respective segments as having the most loyal customer base.
However, although Ford has a strong brand reputation globally with a presence in 62 countries, there is room for improvement. Both Forbes and Interbrand currently rank the Ford brand behind its international rivals Toyota, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Honda.
3. Strong position in China’s automotive market
China is the world’s largest automotive market and Ford’s second largest market in terms of volume. The company currently sells 18.4% of its vehicles there. It isn’t the most profitable market for car manufacturers, but with 28.2 million vehicles sold in 2017, it dwarfs any other vehicle market, including the U.S.
Ford sold 1.215 million vehicles in China in 2017. The company has increased its market share from 3.3% in 2012 to 4.6% in 2016. The company’s market share slightly decreased in 2017, but Ford is confident that its market share will continue to increase over the next few years for a few reasons.
Figure 2. Ford’s growth in China
First, Ford has formed strong partnerships with local Chinese automotive manufacturing companies. The company has 3 joint ventures in China:
- Changan Ford Automobile Corporation, Ltd. (CAF) — a 50/50 joint venture between Ford and Chongqing Changan Automobile Co., Ltd. CAF that operates 7 plants in China.
- Changan Ford Mazda Engine Company, Ltd. (CFME) — a joint venture between Ford and Mazda in China. Both companies have 25% stake in a joint venture with Changan who have a 50% stake. CFME produces engines for Ford and Mazda vehicles made in China.
- JMC – a joint venture between Ford and Jiangling Holdings, Ltd. JMC operates 3 assembly plants and one engine plant in China.
Local partnerships like these have helped Ford to grow in foreign markets much faster.
In addition to these local partnerships, Ford experiences significant success in China with its luxury Lincoln brand. According to the company’s financial report  , sales of its luxury vehicles tripled in China in 2016. The Lincoln brand is recognized for its quality, style and customer satisfaction.
Few of Ford’s competitors have had such success in China.
4. Geographically diversified revenue streams
The majority of Ford’s revenue comes from the U.S., where the company sold 2.566 million vehicles units and earned US$93.844 billion or 59.9% of its total revenue in 2017.  Most automotive companies rely on their home markets to generate the majority of their sales, including Ford.
Figure 3. Ford’s largest markets by number of vehicles sold and revenue earned in 2017
Source: Ford’s financial report 
However outside of its home market, Ford has a more diversified revenue stream than its rivals. Overall, Ford receives 72.7% of its revenue from 3 different markets. In comparison, General Motors earns 76.4% from the U.S. alone, while Toyota relies on 3 big markets to generate over 75% of its revenue. Ford’s competitors therefore rely more heavily on only a few markets to generate the bulk of their revenues, making them more susceptible than Ford to political, economic, social and demographic changes in those markets.
Figure 4. Ford’s revenue breakdown by country
Figure 5. Toyota Motor Corporation’s and General Motors’ revenue breakdown by country
Source: The respective companies’ financial reports 
5. Research and development spending combined with a clear future strategy
Ford has identified innovation as being the key driver of the company’s growth into the technological future. When unveiling the “Ford Smart Mobility” plan in January 2015, President and CEO Mark Fields stated that “We are driving innovation in every part of our business to be both a product and mobility company – and, ultimately, to change the way the world moves just as our founder Henry Ford did 111 years ago.”  Key components of the plan are a focus on car connectivity, mobility, autonomous self-driving vehicles, the customer experience and big data.
In 2016, Ford’s patent applications reflected this innovation focus, increasing in number by 40% over the previous year. Applications were filed for more than 8000 inventions, including autonomous and connected vehicles, drones, robots, navigation and ride-sharing platforms.  Ford was granted approximately 3200 patents in 2016 – 1,500 in the U.S. and another 1,700 in other countries. None of Ford’s competitors were able to match tem in terms of the number of filed applications or the number of granted patents.
It is clear that Ford recognizes technology as a key battleground for the automotive industry, both now and into the future. In the words of Ford’s Mark Fields “We want to disrupt like a startup”.
Figure 6. Comparison of R&D expenditure – Ford and selected major competitors (in US$ billions)
Source: The respective companies’ financial reports 
Ford’s increased focus on innovation and its growing R&D expenditure helps to prepare the company for the future and secure its growth.
1. Weak brand portfolio
Ford currently sells the majority of its vehicles under its own ‘Ford’ brand, with top-end luxury cars being sold under its Lincoln brand.  By comparison, some of its major competitors have a much larger brand portfolio, as illustrated below.
Figure 7. Brand portfolio of selected major Ford competitors
Source: The respective companies’ financial reports 
While Ford’s branding strategy would likely assist with brand awareness and recognition, there are several potential disadvantages to this approach. Ford’s competitors with brand diversification (i.e. multiple brands) can more easily create a hierarchy for their vehicles in consumers’ minds, facilitating product differentiation. A brand diversification strategy can also minimize the fallout from any controversies that a vehicle manufacturer may experience.
However, a company like Ford with their minimalist branding strategy is unlikely to be able to negate the negative publicity associated with product recalls, advertising scandals or vehicle failures. As recently as 2017, Ford faced a public backlash in South Africa after they recalled all 2014 Ford Kuga models because some were spontaneously catching on fire.  The company generally suffers from high recall rates and low rankings in vehicle dependability studies.
Similarly, having such a minimalist branding strategy ensures that product recalls of Ford vehicles inevitably prominently feature the Ford brand in any media coverage, damaging the brand image in consumers’ minds.
2. Declining market share in the U.S. automotive market
At the turn of the century, the “big three” U.S. automotive companies (General Motors, Ford and Chrysler) sold more than two-thirds  of all vehicles in the U.S. market, today that figure is approximately 44%. Over the past few years, Chrysler has managed to increase its U.S. market share. At the same time, Ford has lost the market share in the U.S. to Nissan and Honda.
Figure 8. U.S. vehicle market share – Ford and selected major competitors (vehicle units in thousands)
Source: Good Car Bad Car 
The U.S. is Ford’s largest automotive market and is also the most profitable. As previously explained, the company has strong market share in pickup trucks, but it is losing market share in the SUV and compact car segments.
Most importantly, its declining market share in the U.S. signals that Ford is losing its competitive position. Regaining it will require time and huge investments.
3. Profitability of smaller vehicle models in its product range
The smaller vehicles in Ford’s range aren’t as profitable as its medium to large vehicles.  Ford is currently attempting to increase its market share in many newly developed and emerging international markets, such as the so called “BRIC” economies” (i.e. Brazil, Russia, India and China). However, the largest segments in these markets are for smaller vehicles. An initial side-effect of efforts to increase sales in these emerging markets may be a drop in Ford’s profitability per sale, a fact acknowledged in Ford’s 2017 Annual Report.  Longer term, this may be able to be addressed via shifting production facilities or aspects of vehicle production and the supply chain to more cost-effective regions.
4. Below average vehicle recall and dependability rates
In 2016, a study from iSeeCars  revealed how often different auto manufacturers had recalled their vehicles for fixes over the last 31 years. The industry’s average recall rate was 1,115 vehicles recalled per 1000 vehicles sold. This means that an average auto manufacturer recalled their vehicles multiple times until problems were properly fixed. Out of 18 auto manufacturers on this list, Ford ranked 12 th with a recall rate of 1,139/1000 vehicles. Ford ranked below other mainstream auto manufacturers, such as Kia, Mazda, General Motors, Toyota and Nissan.
Figure 9. Recall Rates by Manufacturer 1985-2016
Source: iSeeCars.com 
Another study from J.D. Power  revealed the reliability of different vehicle brands . All the vehicles included in the study were 3-years-old. On average, vehicles had 142 problems per 100 vehicles, while Ford averaged 152 problems per 100 vehicles. The company ranked 16 th on the list out of 31 brands. While this was an improvement over the previous year when Ford 26 th on the list, this still damages company’s brand.
Both studies reveal comparative auto manufacturer vehicle quality statistics and Ford does not shine in either of them. Customers who buy brand new cars expect a quality product, but often get frustrated over recalls or faulty vehicles. This damages brand reputation, customer loyalty, sales and adds to costs. Ford’s below average recall and dependability rates for its vehicles is a huge weakness.
1. future markets for self-driving vehicles.
The global demand for autonomous vehicles is growing fast, mainly due to the need to improve road safety, ease the driving experience and minimize traffic congestion in big cities. There are five main levels of vehicle automation:
Figure 10. Levels of automation in vehicles
Source: BMW Financial Report 
At the moment, companies offer only level 2 automation vehicles for general consumers. According to Markets & Markets research  , auto manufacturers produced only 2.73 million of these vehicles in 2016. Other research from Grand View Research reports that fully autonomous vehicles will be introduced to the market at a significant scale only in 2021-2022. 
In 2017, there were 44 companies working on autonomous vehicles, including Ford.  Ford was one of the first auto manufacturers to engage in developing a fully automated vehicle. The company expects to introduce a level 4 autonomous vehicle by 2021. 
The company has made progress toward this objective with its new-generation Fusion Hybrid autonomous development vehicle. In 2017, Ford was testing a fleet of 100 of these vehicles. 
Even though the potential opportunity for autonomous vehicles is huge, there are still many challenges. It is yet to be determined what the potential market size would be, how effective the vehicles are, costs, and how they will be regulated in terms of safety concerns. For example, currently only 33 states in America permit driverless cars on the roads.  However, in terms of innovation and potential, the market for self-driving cars could potentially be very lucrative. It is an opportunity that automotive companies have no choice but to explore in the current competitive technological environment.
2. Significant untapped potential of Chinese, Indian and other Asian international markets
Along with many global automotive companies, Ford has been capitalizing on China’s double digit economic growth for much of the past decade. Although this economic growth is slowing  , China still represents a country of tremendous opportunity for automotive manufacturers, including Ford. China’s middle class is growing on the back of its economic growth, and demand for motor vehicles is increasing accordingly.  The Chinese motor vehicle industry is currently the largest in the world. Ford however only has a 4.2% market share in it.  In addition, Ford’s sales have recently slowed by comparison with those of its rivals Toyota and Honda in China. 
Ford’s strategy to increase market share in China is to focus on introducing more hybrid and electric vehicles to comply with strict Chinese quotas over production and sales for new energy vehicles. Between now and 2025, Ford expects to introduce 50 new vehicles, including 15 all-electric cars in China. 
With its strong brand reputation and increasing focus on research and development, Ford is well-positioned to capitalize on this opportunity.
In India, Ford similarly has a minimal market share of just 2.2%. However the market is forecast to be the world’s third largest by 2020 behind China and the United States, on the back of a rising middle class population, many of whom will be able to afford cars for the first time.  Ford views India as a growth market, and in 2017 increased its production capacity in India. 
By 2030, Asia’s share of the world’s middle class population is predicted to double, from 30% to 60%. Much of this growth will be in China and India, but also in Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia. In many of these countries, the average number of cars per household is well below the levels in Western countries.  These countries represent a significant opportunity for all automotive companies, including Ford who has a physical presence in each of these markets.
3. Improving U.S. economic conditions
Vehicle sales figures indicate that buyers are favoring larger and more expensive vehicles. Larger vehicles are more profitable for Ford to produce than smaller, cheaper cars. Sales have been particularly strong in the pickup trucks segment of the market, which is traditionally dominated by Ford. The outlook for the U.S. economy is positive  , which is an opportunity for Ford to consolidate and increase its already significant market share. Ford currently has the 2 nd largest market share in the U.S.
Figure 11. Market share of major competitors in the U.S. market
Source: Good Car Bad Car 
4. Timing and frequency of new model releases
The market share of automotive companies is significantly impacted by the timing and frequency of new model releases, a fact that Ford itself acknowledges.  In 2017, the latest models of its popular F-Series pickup trucks were released, and sales volumes and revenue typically increase in such years. Historically, new models have tended to have major upgrades every 4 or 5 years, with only minor modifications in between.
However, due to rising consumer expectations in relation to in-car technology and the competitive nature of the industry, there is an argument to release upgraded models more frequently. Ford is well-positioned to be able to do this, with its current focus on R&D. The key will be its ability to cost effectively implement technology initiatives in order to maximize competitive advantage.
1. Increased competition
The automotive industry is highly competitive, both in the domestic U.S. market and in international markets around the world. Ford’s international rivals such as Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Hyundai have all aggressively taken market share from the traditional “big three” U.S. automotive companies (General Motors, Ford and Chrysler) since the turn of the century. This competition may further increase with the potential future entry of Chinese and Indian rivals.
In international markets, particularly in growth regions such as China, there is a similar intensity of competition. This competition is fueled by the fact that global automotive production capacity far exceeds demand. In 2017, there was an estimated global excess production capacity of 35 million units. 
In addition to traditional automotive competitors, technology companies such as Google and Apple are showing interest in the automotive market, through initiatives such as the development of driverless vehicles and sophisticated in-car technology that is compatible with their devices and operating platforms.  This may give these organizations technological influence over future vehicle development, which automotive companies may not be able to control.
2. Increasing government regulations
Many governments around the world are committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and are encouraging fuel efficiency initiatives. There is always a risk that such environmental initiatives may increase production costs for car manufacturers such as Ford, and that these costs won’t be able to be recouped in such a highly competitive, price-sensitive market. Although Ford has been relatively prominent in environmentally friendly hybrid and plug-in vehicle development, the demand for such vehicles is still very small.
3. Potential economic and political volatility in international markets
With Ford currently generating 40.1% of its total revenue from outside of its home U.S. market (refer back to Figure 4), the company is vulnerable to international economic and political conditions. Stricter local government regulations and/or import controls, rising interest rates as well as the outbreak of hostilities or acts of terrorism could all adversely affect Ford’s operations internationally, particularly in Europe. Ford acknowledges this risk in its most recent financial report:
“The worldwide automotive industry is affected significantly by general economic conditions over which we have little control. Vehicles are durable goods, and consumers have latitude in determining whether and when to replace an existing vehicle. The decision whether to purchase a vehicle may be affected significantly by slowing economic growth, geopolitical events, and other factors (including the cost of purchasing and operating cars and trucks and the availability and cost of financing and fuel). As we have recently seen in the United States and Europe, in particular, the number of cars and trucks sold may vary substantially from year to year.” 
4. Rising fuel prices
Larger vehicles, which are Ford’s most profitable product lines, invariably use more fuel than smaller models. This makes Ford vulnerable to any rise in fuel prices over the medium to long-term. Consumers in such an environment may opt for smaller vehicles as a corresponding medium to long-term trend, adversely affecting Ford’s profitability if they are unable to improve the profitability of the small models in their product range.
Ford has one of the most iconic automotive brands in the world and it helped the company to grow in the past, but nowadays Ford has to rely on other strengths for successful growth.
The key areas Ford should focus on are its F-Series pickup trucks, China’s automotive market and research and development. F-Series pickup truck line is the best product the company has offered to the market to this day. Ford has to always strive to produce pickup trucks that are way more advanced and reliable than competition’s pickup trucks.
Ford should also step up its R&D spending and introduce more innovative products to the market. It’s the one area Ford is ahead of the competition at the moment. Innovative technologies and services that would enhance the driving experience would attract more tech savvy customers.
As for the weaknesses, Ford should focus on streamlining its operations to lower the price of its smaller range vehicles and also improve vehicle dependability and recall rates. Lower price and better quality vehicles would certainly help the company in Europe’s and China’s automotive markets.
Opportunities and threats present to Ford are the same as to other major automotive companies. The only way for Ford to get the most of these opportunities is to pursue them faster than rivals could. Threats are not posing immediate danger to the company and can be avoided in the future.
Ford will continue to grow in the near future if pickup truck sales will grow and the company will be able to eliminate some of the weaknesses.
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Ford motor company: ready for another century.
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RICHMOND, CA - NOVEMBER 02: Cars are reflected in the grill of a new Ford truck November 2, 2009 in ... [+] Richmond, California. Ford Motor rerported a nearly $1 billion third quarter profit earning $997 million or 29 cents a share compared to a loss of $161 million, or 7 cents a share one year ago. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
This longstanding automobile manufacturer has a cash-generating legacy business that fuels investment in growth opportunities. Despite declines in vehicle sales volumes in each of the past five years, this company’s best years are still ahead. Ford Motor Company (F) is this week’s Long Idea.
Ford’s stock presents quality risk/reward given the:
- extensive manufacturing and distribution networks
- growing share of the U.S. truck market
- strong free cash flow (FCF) generation
- position to leverage legacy vehicle models and iconic brand to reach new electric vehicle (EV) customers
- first-mover advantage in truck EVs
- stock price implies the company’s profits will decline, permanently, by 30% from 2021 levels
Proven Capabilities Are Difficult to Replicate
Companies need a vast manufacturing network and the expertise to manage such a network to generate consistent profits in the highly competitive auto industry. Ford operates 48 manufacturing and assembly plants, making it the third largest light-vehicle manufacturer in the U.S, per Figure 1. The capital required to build and maintain such a large-scale operation is an extremely high hurdle for new entrants. Ford continues to add facilities and scale, including plans to spend $5.6 billion to build its Blue Oval City facility in Tennessee that will produce F-Series EVs and batteries.
Ford also has 9,955 distributors globally (aka dealerships), including ~3,100 (18% of all U.S. new car dealerships ) dealers in the U.S. As the company continues to develop new EVs, dealerships provide Ford a large and proven distribution platform to bring new models quickly and efficiently to consumers. Dealerships also promote long-term sales growth through advertising in local markets, establishing trust with customers, and vehicle service centers conveniently located near customers.
Figure 1: Auto Manufacturers’ Share of U.S. Light Vehicles Sold: 2021
F Market Share
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Ford’s Truck and SUV Business Is Already Profitable
With its extensive manufacturing capabilities and dealership network already in place, Ford operates a profitable internal combustion engine (ICE) business within the U.S.
Ford’s business in the U.S. is now almost exclusively truck and SUV sales. Per Figure 2, wholesale trucks and SUVs sold as a percent of total wholesale volume in the U.S. rose from 82% in 2018 to 97% in 2021. Ford’s shifting sales have mirrored the broader shift to trucks and SUVs by American households: U.S. truck sales rose from 69% of total vehicle sales in 2018 to 78% in 2021. The growing consumer preference for SUV’s reflects a trend toward vehicles becoming rolling entertainment centers built for comfort.
In the short term, Ford’s transition away from sedans meant selling fewer vehicles and losing some market share in the U.S. However, that transition paid off in the form of higher margins as the company’s net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) margin rose from 2.5% in 2018 to 3.7% in 2021. Rising margins drove Ford’s return on invested capital (ROIC) from 4.8% to 5.4% over the same time.
In addition to driving improved NOPAT margins, Ford’s focus on its truck business has also driven market share gains for its largest U.S. segment. Ford’s share of the U.S. truck market rose from 21% in 2018 to 25% in 2021, and the company’s F-Series truck has been the top-selling truck in America for 45 consecutive years . Ford’s success in the truck market positions it to further capitalize on the large demand for trucks and SUVs.
Figure 2: Ford’s U.S. Truck & SUV Volume as Percent of Total Wholesale Volume: 2018 – 2021
F Truck SUV Volume As Percent Of Total
Core Earnings Recovered in 2021
With its NOPAT margins and ROIC on the rise, it comes as no surprise that Ford’s Core Earnings soared in 2021. Per Figure 3, Ford’s Core Earnings rose from -$3.9 billion in 2020 to $8.9 billion in 2021, an all-time high for the company.
It’s also important to note that Core Earnings provide a more reliable measure of a company’s profits than GAAP earnings, and Ford’s Core Earnings are much lower than the company’s $17.9 billion of GAAP earnings in 2021. Core Earnings remove all unusual items, such as Ford’s $9.2 billion gain on investments primarily driven by the $9 billion windfall from the Rivian IPO, to calculate the company’s true profitability.
Figure 3: Ford’s Revenue & Core Earnings Since 2009
F Core Earnings Revenue
Strong Free Cash Flow Is a Big Competitive Advantage
Not only are Ford’s manufacturing and distribution networks difficult to replicate, but the company’s strong free cash (FCF) flow also provides a distinct competitive advantage in an increasingly capital-intensive industry. Car companies need lots of cash to fund vehicle production, distribution and sales. Companies, especially the numerous new entrants focused on EVs, that do not generate and FCF must sell debt or equity to compete. Per Figure 4, over the past 10 years, Ford generated $34.4 billion in FCF, or 53% of its market cap.
Figure 4: Ford’s Cumulative Free Cash Flow: 2012 – 2021
F Cumulative FCF
Per Figure 5, Ford is one of only three peers with a positive 3-year average FCF. While other companies are burning cash, Ford is bringing EVs to market while generating significant FCF from its ICE business. Ford’s 3-year average FCF yield of 2% is second only to Nissan (NSANY).
Figure 5: Ford’s FCF Yield Vs. Peers: TTM
F 3-Year FCF Vs. Peers
*Toyota is a peer, but not included in this analysis, because I cannot accurately calculate its enterprise value, FCF, or FCF yield due to poor disclosure in its 6-Ks after 3/31/21.
Though Ford has operated for 118 years, the company is quickly adapting to a changing industry. Ford’s strong cash-generating operation allows the company to reinvest capital into new strategies to meet EV demand.
Per Figure 6, Ford’s engineering R&D expense rose from $6.2 billion in 2013 to $7.6 billion in 2021. Ford’s engineering R&D expense in 2021 is nearly equal to General Motors’ (GM), 1.5x Stellantis’ (STLA), and 1.3x its peer group average.
In addition to Ford’s on-going cash-generating ICE business, the company has $29.6 billion in excess cash it can use to invest in further research and development or EV expansion.
Figure 6: Research & Development Expense: Ford Vs. Peers
F R&D Spending
Incumbents, Such As Ford, Are the Real EV Winners
I have long argued that incumbent car makers are best positioned to win the EV market over the long run, not Tesla (TSLA) or startups like Rivian (RIVN). I made General Motors a Long Idea in March 2018, and I remain bullish now. While General Motors and Ford are competitors, they both are positioned to profit over the long run from their legacy ICE businesses while taking advantage of the growing EV market.
Volkswagen’s and Stellantis’ dominance in Europe over newcomer Tesla indicate that incumbents are capable of delivering competitive EV options to the market at scale. Volkswagen is the largest EV producer in Europe and sold 549,000 EVs on the continent in 2021. Stellantis sold 324,000 EVs in Europe in 2021, or nearly twice Tesla’s 170,000 units sold. As the U.S. market matures, General Motors’ and Ford’s manufacturing capabilities position both companies to quickly grow their EV businesses and take market share as other incumbents have.
Ford is already rapidly ramping up its EV business. The company’s EV sales rose 167% YoY in January 2022 and accounted for 11% of total sales. Sales of Ford’s Mustang Mach-E totaled 2,370 units in January 2022, and were second only to Tesla’s Model Y. Additionally, Ford has over 200,000 reservations of its F-150 Lightning, which is expected to start delivery in spring of this year.
Ford’s Superior Execution and Brand Will Drive Market Share Gains and Profits
Ford’s focus on trucks, coupled with its commitment to growing its EV business, position the company as the first mover in the truck EV market. Ford’s ability to execute product launches with its iconic brand and popular models help the company bring a superior offering to the EV truck market.
According to a Cox Automotive survey , electric truck consumers preferred the Ford F-150 Lightning’s design to Hummer (GM), Rivian (RIVN), and Tesla trucks. The same survey revealed that Ford’s brand also has value in the EV market, with 75% of electric truck consumers indicating they would likely consider the Ford F-150 Lightning.
Most importantly, Ford’s EV business is profitable. Ford is already delivering Mustang Mach Es to customers and the company confirms that the program is profitable. The company also expects that its F-150 lightning to immediately be profitable as well.
Additionally, EVs create an opportunity for the company to attract new customers. Ford’s CEO stated that 70% of its Ford F-150 Lightning customers were both new to Ford and the truck segment. Ford is scooping up new, eager EV truck buyers as Tesla looks on from the sidelines and newcomers like Rivian experience significant production challenges . 11% of the F-150 Lighting pre-orders are from current Tesla owners.
Increased Focus on the U.S. Market Reduces Geopolitical Risk
Ford has exited some international markets to focus more on its U.S. business in recent years. The increased focus on the U.S. reduces the company’s exposure to geopolitical risks. Figure 7 shows the U.S. accounted for 64% of Ford’s total revenue in 2021, up from 60% in 2017.
While Ford has little exposure to Russia (less than 1% of its 2021 wholesale sales) the company is very exposed to China. The longer Ford invests in China, the greater its risk to the country becomes. China accounted for 16% of Ford’s total wholesale vehicle sales in 2021, up from just 10% in 2019. The company’s China segment isn’t profitable (Ford reported -$327 EBIT from China in 2021), but the country represents a long-term growth opportunity for Ford.
Ford’s ability to navigate trade tensions will be a key determinant of its long-term potential for success in China. If tensions with China were to escalate to the point of forcing Ford to exit the country within the next few years, Ford would likely receive a boost in profitability but a reduction in revenues.
Figure 7: Ford’s U.S. and International Revenue as Percent of Total: 2017 – 2021
F US International Revenue As Percent Of Total
Chip Shortage Is Temporary
Trade tensions affecting the availability of components is much more of a risk for Ford than tensions directly affecting vehicle sale. Ford’s global wholesale sales fell 6% year-over-year in 2021. However, the chip shortage affects the entire industry which saw ~7.7 million vehicles of lost production in 2021. The shortage will continue to impact Ford as it expects 1Q22 U.S. volumes to be down ~10% YoY. However, the company is more optimistic about the chip situation improving throughout rest of the year. Management expects to ship 10% to 15% more vehicles in 2022 than it did in 2021.
Over the long haul, Ford is addressing its chip shortage by rethinking its supply chain. The company’s partnership with GlobalFoundries (GFS) will provide a U.S.-based source for low-tech chips as Ford works toward becoming less dependent upon Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).
Rational Markets Lower Risk of Capital as a Weapon
Tesla’s market cap of ~$1 trillion is 1.3x the combined market cap of Ford and its peer group. Though Tesla is a cash-burning machine, it has the capital to withstand years of unprofitable growth. The meteoric rise of high-flying EV IPOs such as Rivian (RIVN), Lucid (LCID), and Lordstown Motors (RIDE) also underscores the large appetite investors have for EV startups. Access to cheap capital reduces the scale advantages of incumbents.
Nevertheless, even if Tesla can achieve profitability over the long-haul, it will likely only win a small share of the global vehicle market. Tesla benefited from a first-mover advantage, which provided status, brand recognition, a technological lead in EV, and easy access to capital. Other startups will not enjoy those same advantages. Meanwhile, recent market share losses suggest that Tesla will not fully capitalize on its first-mover advantages.
Accordingly, with the decline in the stock price of several high-flyers EV companies, markets are beginning to behave more rationally. New entrants may attract capital from investors in the near-term, but, over the long term, much of that capital will rotate back to profitable operations like Ford’s.
The EV Market Could Face a Supply Glut
More than a few commentators have mistaken the delay of incumbents to the EV market as an inability to compete with Tesla. However, incumbents operate a business of scaled production which means they only enter a new market when it becomes large enough to sustain large-scale production and, therefore, be profitable. Though the staggering pace of EV sales has garnered attention – global EV sales doubled in 2021 – EVs still represent just 9% of global vehicle sales.
Incumbents are now entering the EV market in full force . Ford aims for EVs to account for at least 40% of total vehicle sales by 2030. While the large orders and wait times for Ford’s current EV models indicate significant demand for its EVs, ambitious production targets from incumbents and new entrants could result in an oversupply of EVs.
While Ford is prepared to transition to EVs over the long term, it has its highly profitable ICE business and large cash position to navigate an oversupplied EV market.
Soaring Material Costs and Inflation Could Hurt the Top and Bottom Lines
Rising material costs will force auto manufacturers to accept thinner margins, raise prices, or both. However, Ford’s strong profitability and cash position give the company the option to delay price increases and take market share from less profitable competitors (i.e. EV startups) that need to pass costs on to customers.
No matter how it responds, Ford is likely to see slower growth from its top and bottom lines due to the sudden jump in materials costs. The following is a list from the International Energy Agency ( IEA ) of the YoY change in material costs in the global auto industry in 2021:
- steel: +70%
- aluminum: +100%
- copper: +33%
- lithium carbonate: +150%
- graphite: +15%
- nickel: +25% ( price of nickel has doubled year to date in 2022)
While the costs of raw materials are soaring, the effect of the increase has a more limited impact on the overall cost of a car as raw materials only make up about 10% of the total cost to build a vehicle. Furthermore, over the long term, Platts Analytics expects the cost of batteries and EVs to decline with an influx of investment in raw materials capacity, increased battery efficiencies, and the anticipated shift away from the usage of cobalt.
Perhaps, even more threatening than rising costs to the company’s operations, is the impact of inflation on the overall economy. Should inflation remain elevated, even as the Fed raises interest rates, GDP growth could slow or even decline, which would likely send discretionary goods, such as automobiles, into a downcycle. However, as I’ll show below, the fear of an economic downturn is more than already priced in, given that the stock has fallen by 34% since January 14, 2022.
F Has 56% Upside If Consensus Is Correct
Ford’s price-to-economic book value (PEBV) ratio of 0.7 means the stock is priced for profits to fall, permanently, by 30% from 2021 levels. Such an assumption seems overly pessimistic, given that Ford’s management believes margins will continue their upward trajectory in 2022 as it guides for adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margins to improve to 8%, up from 7% in 2021.
Below I use my reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model to analyze three future cash flow scenarios and highlight the upside potential in Ford’s current stock price.
DCF Scenario 1: to Justify the Current Stock Price of $17/share.
If I assume Ford’s:
- NOPAT margin falls to 3% (ten-year average vs. 4% in 2021) in 2022 through 2031 and
- revenue falls by 2% (vs. 2022 – 2023 consensus estimate CAGR of +13%) compounded annually from 2022 – 2031, then
the stock is worth $17/share today – equal to the current stock price. In this scenario , Ford earns $3.6 billion in NOPAT in 2031, or 30% below 2021 and 33% below its average pre-pandemic NOPAT from 2010 – 2019.
DCF Scenario 2: Shares Are Worth $25+.
If I assume Ford:
- maintains 2021 NOPAT margins of 4% from 2022 through 2031, and
- revenue grows at consensus estimates of 16% in 2022 and 10% in 2023, and
- revenue grows at a 2% CAGR from 2024 – 2031 (below its pre-pandemic revenue CAGR of 3% from 2009 – 2019)
the stock is worth $25/share today – a 47% upside to the current price. In this scenario, Ford’s NOPAT grows just 4% compounded annually for the next decade. For reference, Ford grew NOPAT at a 17% CAGR from 2009 – 2019. In this scenario, Ford’s NOPAT in 2031 is 5% below 2011. Should Ford’s NOPAT grow beyond 2011 levels, then the stock has even more upside.
Figure 8 compares Ford’s historical NOPAT to its implied NOPAT in each of the above DCF scenarios.
Figure 8: Ford’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation Scenarios
F Valuation Scenarios
Sustainable Competitive Advantages Will Drive Shareholder Value Creation
I think the moat around Ford’s business will enable it to continue generating higher NOPAT than the current market valuation implies. Factors contributing to Ford’s moat include:
- strong leadership in the U.S. vehicle market
- manufacturing expertise
- extensive dealership network
- ability to offer EV versions of popular ICE models
- strong free cash flow-generating ICE business that sustains growing R&D and investment in EVs
What Noise Traders Miss With Ford
These days, fewer investors focus on finding quality capital allocators with shareholder friendly corporate governance. Instead, due to the proliferation of noise traders, the focus is on short-term technical trading trends while more reliable fundamental research is overlooked. Here’s a quick summary of what noise traders miss:
- incumbents in the U.S. can replicate Volkswagen’s success in Europe
- instant popularity of Mustang Mach-E and Ford F-150 Lightning
- Ford’s EV business expands the company’s TAM
- valuation implies 47% upside if the company grows at consensus estimates
Earnings Beat or Positive Industry News Could Send Shares Higher
According to Zacks, Ford has beat earnings estimates in nine of the past 12 quarters. Doing so again could send shares higher.
A large contributing factor to the selloff in the stock this year has been supply chain issues. Should supply of semiconductors rebound sooner than anticipated, shares could see a boost from the positive development.
Should Ford’s EV sales accelerate beyond expectations, investors may more quickly realize the company has a large future beyond ICE vehicles and send its stock price higher.
Dividends Provide 2.3% Yield
After suspending dividend payments during the pandemic, Ford reinstated its dividend in 4Q21. Since 2017, Ford has paid $8.9 billion (13% of current market cap) in cumulative dividends. The firm’s current dividend, when annualized, provides a 2.3% yield.
Before the pandemic, Ford also returned capital to shareholders through share repurchases. However, the company hasn’t repurchased any shares since suspending its repurchase program in 2020. From 2017 to 2019, the firm repurchased $532 million (<1% of current market cap) worth of stock. If the company resumes repurchases, shareholders will realize even more yield than the current dividend provides.
Executive Compensation Plan Properly Incentivizes Management
No matter the macro environment, investors should look for companies with executive compensation plans that directly align executives’ interests with shareholders’ interests. Quality corporate governance holds executives accountable to shareholders by incentivizing them to allocate capital prudently.
Ford compensates executives with salaries, cash bonuses, and long-term equity awards. Ford’s performance unit grants are tied in part to a three-year annual return on invested capital (ROIC) target. By tying executive compensation to ROIC, Ford ensures that executives’ interests are aligned with those of shareholders. There is a strong correlation between improving ROIC and increasing shareholder value.
Ford’s focus on ROIC is driving results. The company’s 2021 ROIC of 5.4% was its highest since 2017.
Insider Trading and Short Interest Trends
Over the past 12 months, insiders have bought 1.3 million shares and sold 2.2 million shares for a net effect of ~871 thousand shares sold. These sales represent less than 1% of shares outstanding.
There are currently 78.3 million shares sold short, which equates to 2% of shares outstanding and just under one day to cover. Short interest decreased 16% from the prior month. The lack of short interest indicates not many are willing to bet against Ford’s cash-generating business.
Critical Details Found in Financial Filings by My Firm’s Robo-Analyst Technology
Below are specifics on the adjustments I make based on Robo-Analyst findings in Ford’s 10-K:
Income Statement: I made $21.5 billion of adjustments, with a net effect of removing $12.9 billion in non-operating income (9% of revenue).
Balance Sheet: I made $83.3 billion of adjustments to calculate invested capital with a net decrease of $5.6 billion. One of the largest adjustments was $25.8 billion in asset write-downs. This adjustment represented 27% of reported net assets.
Valuation: I made $61.7 billion of adjustments to shareholder value for a net effect of decreasing shareholder value by $2.4 billion. One of the most notable adjustments to shareholder value was $29.6 billion in excess cash. This adjustment represents <1% of Ford market cap.
Attractive Fund That Holds F
The following fund receives an attractive rating and allocates significantly to F:
- Invesco S&P 500 Enhanced Value ETF (SPVU) – 2.3% allocation
Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, style, or theme.
 3-year average FCF yield = 3-year average FCF / current enterprise value
 Peers include Volkswagen (VW), Toyota (TM), General Motors, Honda (HMC), Stellantis, Nissan (NSANY), Tesla, Rivian, Nio (NIO), and Tata Motors (TTM).
 Peers include Volkswagen (VW), Toyota (TM), General Motors, Honda (HMC), Stellantis, Nissan (NSANY), Tesla (TSLA), Rivian (RIVN), Nio (NIO), and Tata Motors (TTM).
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The value of our business is rooted in our purpose to help build a better world where every person is free to move and pursue their dreams. We are committed to making our purpose evident in every part of our business, from the way we source our materials, to the vehicles we create, the services we provide, and the interactions we have with our customers, employees, and communities.
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Product & service pr, ford (part 1): focusing on evs and commercial vehicles under the "ford+" business strategy, over 40% of global sales to be evs by 2030; building 129gwh battery plant with sk innovation.
- Accelerating the "Ford+" business strategy and raising the electrification target
- Sales in the U.S.: Sales of SUVs and EVs expand, but number of vehicles decrease due to semiconductor shortages
- Launch plan of new models in the U.S.: Expanding lineup of SUVs, pickups, and EVs
- EV introduction plan: EV versions of mainstay models Transit and F-150 to be launched in 2022
- EV battery: SK Innovation builds battery plant with annual production of 129GWh
On May 26, 2021, Ford Motor Company (Ford) announced its new business strategy, "Ford+," which positions electric vehicles (EVs), connected technology, and commercial vehicle business as the pillars of growth. As for EVs, Ford aims to have over 40% of its global sales volume be EVs (electric vehicles) by 2030. For the commercial vehicle business, the company will launch a business division, Ford Pro, to develop a business model that not only sells commercial vehicles but also continues to provide related services such as charging and repair.
Ford's sales volume in the U.S. in 2021 was 1,892,000 units, down 7.0% from the previous year. Although the new Bronco and Bronco Sport SUVs and the Mustang Mach-E, Ford's first mass-market EV, contributed to a sales increase, sales were lower than the previous year due to the end of production of most passenger cars and production cuts caused by semiconductor supply shortages. For 2022, Ford expects wholesale volume to improve by 10-15% due to the launch of new EV models and improved semiconductor supply.
In its plan to introduce new models in the U.S., with the exception of the Mustang, the company is discontinuing low profitability passenger cars and focusing on SUVs and pickup trucks. In pickup trucks, the company will add a mid-size Ranger in 2022 and an off-road type Bronco Pickup in 2024. In SUVs, the company will discontinue the small EcoSport and the mid-size Edge, and launch a Mexican-made mid-size SUV in 2023, an all-new full-size Expedition in 2024, and a new compact Escape in 2025.
As for its electrification plans, the company launched its first EV, the Mustang Mach-E SUV, in 2021, to be followed by the E-Transit commercial van and the F-150 Lightning full-size pickup truck in 2022. These reflect Ford's strategy of electrifying its most iconic models. In 2025, the company plans to launch an EV version of the Explorer mid-size SUV, as well as EV versions of three other Lincoln SUV models.
Ford's global EV introduction plan will require approximately 240GWh of battery cell production capacity by 2030. Therefore, in addition to developing its own battery production capacity, Ford is also working with a number of battery suppliers. Through a joint venture with battery manufacturer SK Innovation Co., Ltd. (SK Innovation), the company plans to build two plants to produce 129GWh of batteries annually by 2025.
This part, Part 1, of the report focuses on Ford's business strategy, sales situation and product strategy in the U.S., and electrification plans. Part 2 of the report will report on the situation and strategies in other regions, company performance, the outlook for 2022, and LMC Automotive's global sales forecast.
Related Reports: U.S. battery electric vehicle strategies for GM, Ford and Stellantis (Dec. 2021) Motor Bella 2021: OEMs expand EV model lineup in response to market demand (Nov. 2021) Motor Bella 2021: U.S. demand for SUVs and light trucks steadily grows (Oct. 2021) IAA Mobility 2021: VW and Ford reveal concepts and electric cars focusing on performance (Oct. 2021) U.S. Fuel Economy Regulations Tightened: MY 2026 CO2 171 g/mile, CAFE 52.0 mpg (Sep. 2021) Auto Shanghai 2021: NEVs of Non-Chinese OEMs (2) (Jun. 2021) WCX 2021: Development of automotive connectivity and autonomy (May 2021) Ford (Part 1): Collaboration with VW and targeted investment under new CEO (Nov. 2020) Ford (Part 2): Rationalization and Aggressive Product Enhancement in Europe and China (Nov. 2020)
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Department of Motor Vehicles Strategic Plan: 2021-2026
We proudly serve the public by licensing drivers, registering vehicles, securing identities, and regulating the motor vehicle industry in pursuit of public safety.
Deliver an outstanding experience to all our customers, powered by our people and technology.
Our Core Values
S – SERVICE – Striving for Customer-Centric Service
T – TRUST – Earning Trust
R – RESPECT – Upholding Respect
I – INNOVATION – Pushing for Innovation
D – DEVELOPMENT – Prioritizing our People Development
E – EXCELLENCE – Delivering Excellence
The DMV employs nearly 10,000 dedicated public servants and is focusing on investing in that workforce. The DMV is also focusing on attracting and retaining talent, enhancing team members’ capacity across the organization, and providing modern training and technology.
This Goal’s objectives will move the DMV toward becoming an organization that its people, both present and future, are proud to call their place of work.
- Develop DMV into a desirable and dynamic employer
- Increase overall employee engagement
- Increase employee engagement in customer-facing roles
As technology has continued to evolve, the expectations and preferences of customers have also changed. Today’s customers expect instantaneous service and information to be readily available.
This goals objectives will expand existing service channels and facilitate the ease and convenience of self-service. These changes will help reduce wait times and allow team members to be more customer-focused when completing complex tasks.
- Substantially increase services outside of the in-person channels
- Increase ease of completing all transactions
- Increase completion of all transactions outside the in-person channels
Emerging technologies give the DMV access to more real-time information that can be shared across a multitude of platforms. With this increased access comes the possibility of new threats to customers’ information. As the DMV transitions to more modern and intuitive platforms to meet customers’ needs and preferences, it must also ensure their information is protected.
This goal’s objectives will help the DMV develop a strategic approach to data in governance. They will also bolster privacy and security practices as DMV continues to adopt new technologies.
- Substantially increase the portion of the IT portfolio offered on standard platforms
- Increase enterprise visibility through integrated, connected systems with an ability to monitor in real-time
- Centralize the enterprise-wide data model to provide timely business intelligence
- Increase privacy and security capabilities across the enterprise
As DMV adopts new technologies and processes, it will realize value and efficiency resulting from these innovations, and its team members will be well-equipped to meet and exceed performance goals.
This goal’s objectives will bring tools and systems to the DMV to measure and manage performance. They will reveal how DMV is performing as an organization by establishing performance baselines and industry benchmarks.
- Increase the quantitative measuring of productivity and performance
- Increase productivity to surpass industry benchmarks for service delivery
The DMV will offer a variety of critical services throughout the State and will accommodate the varying needs of customers. It provides services to the most populous and diverse state in the country and is often the government agency Californians interact with the most.
This goal’s objectives help the DMV better understand customers’ needs and improve their journey through its services. These objectives will help build customer trust, equity and satisfaction in DMV’s integral government services.
- Increase overall customer satisfaction
- Apply a human-centered design approach to all new services and products
How Big is the DMV?
- Locations: 229 facilities
- Employees: 10,062
- Registered Vehicles: 35,820,417
- DL/ID Cards: 33,509,549
- Total Transactions: 84,322,667
- Auto Clubs: 181
- Business Partner Sites: 5,905
As of January 1, 2021. Numbers include all transactions from all service channels.
Where Does the Money Go?
- Local Government (cities/counties): 34.5%
- California Highway Patrol (CHP): 19.0%
- State Highways (CalTrans): 25.1%
- California Air Resources Board (CARB): 2.3%
- General Fund: 0.5%
- Environmental Agencies: 0.5%
- Department of Justice (DOJ): 0.2%
- Other State Agencies: 4.2%
* Based on 2019/2020 fees. Fees are subject to law changes. California Vehicle Code, California Harbors and Navigation Code, California Civil Code, California Government *Source: 2021-2022 Governor’s Budget. Fees are subject to law changes. California Vehicle Code, California Harbors and Navigation Code, California Civil Code, California Government Code, California Health and Safety Code, California Code of Civil Procedures, and California Revenue and Taxation Code sections noted for reference.
Our Core Functions
- Driver’s License and Identification (DL/ID) Card Program We test and issue DLs to qualified drivers, provide ID services to the public, and verify the identity of DL/ID card holders.
- Vehicle Titling and Registration Program We issue titles and register automobiles, trailers, and vessels, as well as commercial vehicles used for both interstate and intrastate commerce.
- Driver Safety Program We promote traffic safety by monitoring and evaluating the driving performance of licensed drivers.
- Licensing of the Motor Vehicle Industry We license and regulate the occupations and businesses related to the manufacture, transport, sale, and disposal of vehicles.
Our Support Functions
- Administrative Services We are responsible for budgetary and fiscal management, contract and procurement processes, human resources management, facilities and properties management, and mail operations and printing services.
- Revenue Collection Distribution Annually, DMV collects and tracks over $7 billion in revenue which is distributed to other state agencies, local government, and California’s General Fund.
- Information Technology (IT) Services We also provide programming, installation, and maintenance for DMV’s complex and unique IT systems.
- Enforcement Services DMV conducts auditing, monitoring, inspecting, and investigative services on the internal and external entities related to our core programs.
- Enterprise Risk Management We provide an independent assessment of the DMV’s enterprise through risk management, oversight, enterprise planning, auditing, and privacy.
California Department of Motor Vehicles Enterprise Risk and Performance Office 2415 First Avenue, MS F500 Sacramento, CA 95818 [email protected] Gavin Newsom, Governor State of California Toks Omishakin California State Transportation Agency Steve Gordon, Director Department of Motor Vehicles
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The web pages currently in English on the DMV website are the official and accurate source for the program information and services the DMV provides. Any discrepancies or differences created in the translation are not binding and have no legal effect for compliance or enforcement purposes. If any questions arise related to the information contained in the translated website, please refer to the English version.
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Strategic Fire Plan for California
The 2018 Plan reflects CAL FIRE’s focus on (1) fire prevention and suppression activities to protect lives, property, and ecosystem services, and (2) natural resource management to maintain the state’s forests as a resilient carbon sink to meet California’s climate change goals and to serve as important habitat for adaptation and mitigation. A vision for a natural environment that is more fire resilient; buildings and infrastructure that are more fire resistant; and a society that is more aware of and responsive to the benefits and threats of wildland fire; all achieved through local, state, federal, tribal, and private partnerships.
2018 Strategic Fire Plan
To locate a specific Unit Fire Plan, you can zoom in or use the search bar on the map below. Once you have narrowed down your location or address, simply click on the map and a pop-up containing a link to the Unit's 2022 Fire Plan will appear. A list of all Unit Fire Plans is also located beneath the web map.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What are the goals of the 2018 Strategic Fire Plan? Why does the Board of Forestry and Fire Protection have a 2018 Strategic Fire Plan? Who developed the 2018 Strategic Fire Plan? What is a Unit Fire Plan?
What are the goals of 2018 Strategic Fire Plan? Through government and community collaboration, the following goals will enhance the protection of lives, property and natural resources from wildland fire, as well as improve environmental resilience to wildland fire. Community protection includes promoting the safety of the public and emergency responders, as well as protection of property and other improvements. Each goal listed here is meant to build upon the previous one (e.g., Goal 3 builds upon the accomplishments in Goals 1 and 2). Although full attainment of a goal is ultimately dependent upon the success of previous goals, any of the goals can be worked on at any given time based on available funding and other opportunities.
- Identify and evaluate wildland fire hazards and recognize life, property and natural resource assets at risk, including watershed, habitat, social and other values of functioning ecosystems. Facilitate the collaborative development and sharing of all analyses and data collection across all ownerships for consistency in type and kind.
- Promote and support local land use planning processes as they relate to: (a) protection of life, property, and natural resources from risks associated with wildland fire, and (b) individual landowner objectives and responsibilities.
- Support and participate in the collaborative development and implementation of local, county and regional plans that address fire protection and landowner objectives.
- Increase fire prevention awareness, knowledge and actions implemented by individuals and communities to reduce human loss, property damage and impacts to natural resources from wildland fires.
- Integrate fire and fuels management practices with landowner/land manager priorities across jurisdictions.
- Determine the level of resources necessary to effectively identify, plan and implement fire prevention using adaptive management strategies.
- Determine the level of fire suppression resources necessary to protect the values and assets at risk identified during planning processes.
- Implement post-fire assessments and programs for the protection of life, property, and natural resource recovery.
Strategic Fire Plan (PDF)
Why does the Board of Forestry and Fire Protection have a 2018 Strategic Fire Plan? The mission of the Board is to lead California in developing policies and programs that serve the public interest in environmentally, economically, socially sustainable forest and rangeland management, and a fire protection system that protects and serves the people of the state. Its statutory responsibilities are to:
- Establish and administer forest and rangeland policy for the State of California, and
- Protect and represent the state’s interest in all forestry and rangeland matters, and
- Provide direction and guidance to CAL FIRE on fire protection and resource management, and
- Accomplish a comprehensive regulatory program for forestry and fire protection, and
- Conduct its duties to inform and respond to the people of the State of California.
In concert with the mission of the Board, the mission of CAL FIRE is to serve and safeguard the people and protect the property and resources of California.
PRC 4114 (found in Sections 4111-4123) PRC 4130 (found in Sections 4125-4137)
Who developed the 2018 Strategic Fire Plan? This statewide fire plan was developed in concert between the State Board of Forestry and Fire Protection of and the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE). The Board consulted a group of outside experts to complete a needs assessment and subsequently formed the Fire Plan Steering Committee. This Committee worked for over a year preparing the 2018 Strategic Fire Plan. For the first time, the Fire Plan was released for public review and comment during development. Significant changes were made to the Fire Plan based on the valuable input from many stakeholders.
State Board of Forestry and Fire Protection California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection
What is a Unit Fire Plan?
The largest and most visible part of CALFIRE operations is fire suppression. CAL FIRE Units are organized to address fire suppression over a geographic area and divided by region (North and South). California currently has 21 CAL FIRE Units and 6 additional Contract Counties which geographically follow county lines. Each unit consists of one to three counties.
Each CAL FIRE Unit and Contract County varies greatly in size, terrain, and fire suppression strategies. For this reason, individual Unit Strategic Fire Plans are completed annually to address how each CAL FIRE Unit and Contract County is achieving the goals and objectives of the Strategic Fire Plan. Annual updates to the Unit Fire Plans are due June 1 of each year. To simplify the process for annual updates, a Unit Fire Plan Template has been created. This template will allow for the inclusion of minor updates in addendums to the existing plan. Major changes in priorities, partnerships, projects, or plan components may require a new Unit Fire Plan to be submitted.
Strategic Progress of Ford+ Growth Plan, Solid Financials in '21 Position Company for Connected EV Leadership in 2022, Beyond Feb 3, 2022 | DEARBORN, Mich. Click here for full release PDF DEARBORN, Mich., Feb. 3, 2022 -- Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) today reported its 2021 fourth quarter financial results.
Ford reaffirms guidance for 2022 of $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion in company adjusted EBIT. The high end of the range equates to a margin of 8% which, if achieved, would be one year earlier than the company's previous target. With these changes announced today, Ford is raising its longer-term operating and financial targets, including:
From Henry Ford to Bill Ford today, the company acts decisively to create and promote a sustainable future for our shared planet - often veering from the status quo to help change our world for the better. View our sustainability 2022 Integrated Sustainability and Financial Report We've been building the future for 118 years now.
In our 2022 Integrated Report, we have continued to evolve our process to better show the indelible link between our company strategy and our sustainability goals. Download PDF For previous reports, click here Vision for the future We aim to reach carbon neutrality no later than 2050.
This Ford SWOT analysis reveals how a pioneering automobile company used its competitive advantages to become one of the most innovative automotive manufacturers in the world. It identifies all the key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats that affect the company the most.
Sales of Ford's Mustang Mach-E totaled 2,370 units in January 2022, and were second only to Tesla's Model Y. Additionally, Ford has over 200,000 reservations of its F-150 Lightning, which is...
Now the roundtrip to and from the dealer is on us. Learn More. Ford F-Series. Best-Selling Trucks 46 Years Straight. *. For the 46th straight year, the Ford F-Series pickup has been the best-selling line of trucks in America. *Based on 1977-2022 CY total sales. 2022 model year vehicles with optional equipment shown.
2022 Integrated Sustainability and Financial Report We've been building the future for 118 years now. But you don't have to go back 118 years to witness how we have transformed the ways people move and connect. Learn more in this year's Integrated Sustainability & Financial Report. View PDF Supplementary Reports
IR Contact. Ford Motor Company Shareholder Relations P.O. Box 6248 Dearborn, MI 48126 Telephone: (800) 555-5259 (U.S. and Canada) (313) 845-8540 (International)
More information about the company, its products and Ford Motor Credit Company is available at corporate.ford.com. Contacts Media T.R. Reid 1.313.319.6683 [email protected]
For 2022, Ford expects wholesale volume to improve by 10-15% due to the launch of new EV models and improved semiconductor supply. In its plan to introduce new models in the U.S., with the exception of the Mustang, the company is discontinuing low profitability passenger cars and focusing on SUVs and pickup trucks.
California Department of Motor Vehicles. Enterprise Risk and Performance Office. 2415 First Avenue, MS F500. Sacramento, CA 95818. [email protected] Gavin Newsom, Governor. State of California. Toks Omishakin. California State Transportation Agency.
As we implement this Plan we will concentrate and focus on four Goals under our Mission, Vision, and Values. The following Goals are equally important, and all will be acted on simultaneously: Improve our core capabilities. Enhance internal operations. Ensure health and safety. Build an engaged, motivated and innovative workforce.
2018 Strategic Fire Plan. To locate a specific Unit Fire Plan, you can zoom in or use the search bar on the map below. Once you have narrowed down your location or address, simply click on the map and a pop-up containing a link to the Unit's 2022 Fire Plan will appear. A list of all Unit Fire Plans is also located beneath the web map.
Director, Global Sales & Marketing. Nov 2011 - 20176 years. Novi, MI / Nagoya, JP. Leader of the global audio sales activity for Harman's Toyota account. Responsible for sales, P&L and B2B ...